My Thoughts on this election

So the results of the election are in and few who study politics on an objective academic level are surprised at all that the white house is not changing hands. One of the few laws that exist in Politics is that Incumbents usually run for re-election and when they run they win with unmistakable frequency. This rule is nearly scientific in the congress. However, it holds true in the Presidency as well, in my lifetime since 1989 there has only been one incumbent that failed to win and I was far too young to remember the 1992 presidential election In the history of the presidency there have only been 8 (maybe 9) one term Presidents meaning that of the 57 presidential elections only about 14% have been lost by standing (or former)* Presidents making Mitts chances grim at best but considering that the state of the US government has drastically changed over the years with the direct election of senators and the Electoral College becoming a formality the rules of politics have changed and since WWII there have only been 2 presidents that won the first election and did not win the second one  (Carter and Bush sr.) suggesting an even stronger incumbency advantage. One I anticipate will be repeated for the next 3 to 4 Presidents at least.  

Now secondly I’m Proud of one thing about our nation right now we had a fairly strong turnout for this election. Someone told me and I read on Facebook that only 2/3^rds of us voted and I think those numbers are flat wrong. For one all the election results are not in yet in many states still have as much as 20% of the vote still to count according to the Fox election map and the current popular count was Obama 61.2 million and Romney 58.2 million I bet once it’s all said and done we will be looking at a minimum of 120 million total votes counted meaning that of the approximate 150 million people in our nation registered to vote all but about 30 million (or about a 5^th) of registered voters did there are just north of 200,000 eligible voters (meaning non-felon adults). We are still looking at more than 60% of all eligible voters spoke in this election. Something we have the right to be proud of I think.

Lastly I am still hearing something from my family and friends that I think need to be addressed. “Obama won just because he was black” I think there may be an element of truth to this statement but I don’t think that the presidency was directly decided by race. At the end of 2008 a large portion of the voting population was hopping mad at George Bush jr. there was a huge bailout that just happened we had been at war that was incredibly unpopular, Osoma was still on the loose and the economy was taking a turn for the worse the 2008 and 2012 elections were going to be won by a Democrat. Many felt that they had given the GOP ample opportunity to handle the situation and because they did not feel in danger anymore they were ready to give the Democrats a turn in charge. The Republicans knew this there were half a dozen candidates that were twice as strong as McCain (Perry, Romney, Gingrich, Rice or Cheney) he was more or less sacrificed by the party in order to regroup and make an attempt for the white house in 2012. If the republicans knew this you can also be that the democrats knew this. They wanted to make history and do something never done before. Looking at the primary elections on the Democratic side the top two candidates were going to be a first in the White house either a woman (Hillary Clinton) or an African American (Barack Obama). The Democrats decided that they had won the 2008 election and they had, there was no way that McCain or whoever else the GOP put forward was going to pull it off so they were determined to make history with who they nominated. Now race certainly did not hurt him but the 2008 election was going to be won by Micky mouse if he ran as a democrat. Party was the determining factor not race. I almost wish the Republicans had run Condoleezza Rice just to prove this point. Regardless Obama won because he was a Democrat not because he was black.  

*Grover Cleveland lost re-election but then served another term making him a unique case.